Dirt Report · 6 Apr 2026

NBN’s $Billions Bet… And The Maths Might Be Wrong | Dirt Report

NBN Co’s strategy to move more customers from copper-based services to full fibre is facing scrutiny over its assumptions about average revenue per user. Analysis prepared for the ACCC argues that the expected revenue uplift from fibre customers may be optimistic, while NBN Co points to growing demand for higher speeds and rising residential ARPU. The disagreement could affect the scale and funding of future network upgrades.

The short version

Key points

NBN Co’s upgrade strategy relies partly on higher average revenue per user from customers moving to fibre and faster speed tiers.
Historical differences in ARPU between fibre and copper customers have varied considerably, according to the analysis discussed in the video.
The ACCC’s draft regulatory decision proposes reducing some of NBN Co’s requested spending for the next regulatory cycle.
Higher customer prices or faster-plan upgrades would be needed for ARPU to rise as projected.
The debate also covers NBN Co’s investment in upgrading its HFC network for multi-gigabit services.

Why ARPU matters to the fibre business case

Average revenue per user, or ARPU, is a key part of NBN Co’s financial planning. The company expects that moving customers from older copper-based services to full fibre will support greater take-up of faster speed tiers and, in turn, increase the amount paid by each customer.

That assumption matters because the fibre upgrade program involves infrastructure spending described in the video as running to tens of billions of dollars. If customers do not move to faster plans, or if prices remain constrained by competition, the additional revenue may be lower than forecast.

Historical data raises questions

The analysis by consultancy Houston Kemp, prepared as part of the ACCC regulatory review process, challenges the size of the uplift NBN Co expects from fibre customers. The video says the historical ARPU difference between fibre and copper users has not been consistent: at one point it reached about $8 per month, while in other years it was close to zero.

NBN Co’s position is that demand for higher speeds is increasing. The company points to customers moving from 50 megabits per second to 100 Mbps, 250 Mbps and, in some cases, gigabit services. Recent residential ARPU was described in the video as being around $52 per month, indicating that there has been an upward trend.

The ACCC’s draft decision

The ACCC has responded with a draft decision for the regulatory cycle beginning in 2026. The video describes the proposal as cutting billions of dollars from NBN Co’s requested spending, rather than stopping the fibre rollout altogether.

The disagreement is therefore about the pace and scale of investment. NBN Co is planning around stronger future demand for high-speed services, while the regulatory review is testing those expectations against observed customer behaviour and historical revenue data.

Customers may limit the revenue increase

ARPU does not increase simply because a connection is capable of higher speeds. Customers must either select faster plans or pay higher prices, and typically both factors would contribute to an increase.

The video argues that many households may not see enough practical benefit beyond 100 to 250 Mbps to justify upgrading. Competition, including 5G home internet, could also place limits on pricing, although its current effect was described as limited. If customers remain satisfied with existing plans, the expected fibre-related revenue uplift may not occur at the projected rate.

HFC upgrades add another part to the debate

NBN Co is also investing in upgrades to its hybrid fibre-coaxial network to support multi-gigabit speeds. This is intended to extend the capability of existing infrastructure rather than rely only on new fibre construction.

Houston Kemp’s questions apply to this investment as well: the issue is whether customers will pay for the additional capability. That creates a broader question for the rollout—whether network capacity is being built ahead of demonstrated demand, or in anticipation of future uses that have not yet emerged.

TechManPat’s conclusion

My view is that fibre should have been used from the beginning, rather than Australia paying again to replace copper. Fibre remains the long-term outcome I want for reliability, latency and maintenance, but customers only appear willing to pay for faster services up to a point. The rollout should continue, while every dollar is tested against real customer behaviour rather than assuming everyone will move to gigabit plans overnight.

Source note

This knowledge-centre summary is based on the linked TechManPat video and reflects the information available when it was published. Check current pricing, availability and policies before acting.